2025 ICB: irrigation winter crops for Northern Cape

OPDT   OIL & PROTEIN SEEDS DEVELOPMENT TRUST
OAC   OILSEEDS ADVISORY COMMITTEE

OPDT
OIL & PROTEIN SEEDS DEVELOPMENT TRUST

OAC
OILSEEDS ADVISORY COMMITTEE


WINTER CROPS  //  2025 Income and Cost Budgets

Northern Cape – irrigation

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley and canola for Northern Cape
Area Northern Cape
Crop Wheat Barley Canola
Production system Irrigation

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 8.00 7.50 3.50
SAFEX simulated price / producer price: 2025 R/ton 6 327 6 327 7 637
Total deductions R/ton 966 908 151
– Transport differential R/ton 631 631 122
– Grade differential R/ton 228 200
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 107 77 29
Price premiums / Canola back-payment R/ton 74 764
Net farm gate price R/ton 5 361 5 493 8 249
Gross income R/ha R42 891 R41 199 R28 872

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha 1 300 1 300 1 538
Crop insurance R/ha 2 659 2 554 1 155
Fertilizer R/ha 11 669 9 343 6 335
Lime R/ha 1 500 1 500
Seed R/ha 2 338 1 500 1 979
Fuel R/ha 1 530 1 489 1 216
Herbicide R/ha 327 327 1 254
Insecticide R/ha 1 077 236 431
Fungicides R/ha 311 180 664
Marketing costs R/ha 241 264 42
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 1 240 1 240 1 153
Casual labour R/ha
Irrigation: Water R/ha 1 206 1 231 1 146
Irrigation: Electricity R/ha 5 472 5 199 5 199
Aerial spray R/ha 1 350 450
Other expenditure: Scheduling / Irrigation Equipment R&M R/ha 1 368 1 307 1 307
Total variable expenditure R/ha R33 588 R28 119 R23 416
Total variable expenditure R/ton R4 198 R3 749 R6 690
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R9 304 R13 080 R5 456
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R1 163 R1 744 R1 559
Break-even yield T/ha 6.26 5.12 2.84
Break-even price R/ton R4 198 R3 749 R6 690
Source: GWK, GSA and BFAP, updated April 2025.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Northern Cape
Graph showing the baseline gross margin comparison for Northern Cape irrigation

Gross margin per hectare: Northern Cape

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 7.25 7.50 7.75 8.00 8.25 8.50 8.75
R4 361 -1 967 -877 214 1 304 2 394 3 485 4 575
R4 611 -155 998 2 151 3 304 4 457 5 610 6 762
R4 861 1 658 2 873 4 089 5 304 6 519 7 735 8 950
R5 111 3 470 4 748 6 026 7 304 8 582 9 860 11 137
R5 361 5 283 6 623 7 964 9 304 10 644 11 985 13 325
R5 611 7 095 8 498 9 901 11 304 12 707 14 110 15 512
R5 861 8 908 10 373 11 839 13 304 14 769 16 235 17 700
R6 111 10 720 12 248 13 776 15 304 16 832 18 360 19 887
R6 361 12 533 14 123 15 714 17 304 18 894 20 485 22 075
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.75 8.00 8.25
R4 493 2 210 3 333 4 456 5 580 6 703 7 826 8 950
R4 743 3 897 5 083 6 269 7 455 8 641 9 826 11 012
R4 993 5 585 6 833 8 081 9 330 10 578 11 826 13 075
R5 243 7 272 8 583 9 894 11 205 12 516 13 826 15 137
R5 493 8 960 10 333 11 706 13 080 14 453 15 826 17 200
R5 743 10 647 12 083 13 519 14 955 16 391 17 826 19 262
R5 993 12 335 13 833 15 331 16 830 18 328 19 826 21 325
R6 243 14 022 15 583 17 144 18 705 20 266 21 826 23 387
R6 493 15 710 17 333 18 956 20 580 22 203 23 826 25 450
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25
R7 249 -3 481 -1 668 144 1 956 3 769 5 581 7 393
R7 499 -2 793 -918 956 2 831 4 706 6 581 8 456
R7 749 -2 106 -168 1 769 3 706 5 644 7 581 9 518
R7 999 -1 418 582 2 581 4 581 6 581 8 581 10 581
R8 249 -731 1 332 3 394 5 456 7 519 9 581 11 643
R8 499 -43 2 082 4 206 6 331 8 456 10 581 12 706
R8 749 644 2 832 5 019 7 206 9 394 11 581 13 768
R8 999 1 332 3 582 5 831 8 081 10 331 12 581 14 831
R9 249 2 019 4 332 6 644 8 956 11 269 13 581 15 893
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R7 499 R7 749 R7 999 R8 249 R8 499 R8 749 R8 999
3.00 -10 222 -9 472 -8 722 -7 972 -7 222 -6 472 -5 722
2.75 -12 097 -11 410 -10 722 -10 035 -9 347 -8 660 -7 972
3.00 -10 222 -9 472 -8 722 -7 972 -7 222 -6 472 -5 722
3.25 -8 347 -7 535 -6 722 -5 910 -5 097 -4 285 -3 472
3.50 -6 473 -5 598 -4 723 -3 848 -2 973 -2 098 -1 223
3.75 -4 598 -3 660 -2 723 -1 785 -848 90 1 027
4.00 -2 723 -1 723 -723 277 1 277 2 277 3 277
4.25 -848 214 1 277 2 339 3 402 4 464 5 527
5.00 4 776 6 026 7 276 8 526 9 776 11 026 12 276

Notes

  • Please refer to Methodology, Approach and Definitions for in-depth interpretation of enterprise budgets.
  • The canola back-payment assumes 10% of contracted price.
  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for. Overhead costs such as interest on production loans, labour, management and administration will vary to a large extent from producer to producer. Producers will therefore have to deduct the farm business' overhead cost from the gross margins as stipulated in the tables and figures to calculate the net income per crop.
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