2023/2024 ICB: Northern Cape soybean and maize under irrigation

OPDT   OIL & PROTEIN SEEDS DEVELOPMENT TRUST
OAC   OILSEEDS ADVISORY COMMITTEE

OPDT
OIL & PROTEIN SEEDS DEVELOPMENT TRUST

OAC
OILSEEDS ADVISORY COMMITTEE

2023/2024 SUMMER CROPS  //  Income and Cost Budgets

Northern Cape – irrigation

Income and cost budgets for maize, soybeans, groundnuts and sunflower (oil) for the Northern Cape
Area Northern Cape
Crop Maize Soybeans Groundnuts Sunflower
Production system Irrigation

1. Income
Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 14.00 4.00 3.50 3.00
SAFEX simulated price / producer price: 2024 R/ton 3 766 8 109 17 520 8 332
Total deductions R/ton 564 459 66 649
– Transport differential R/ton 485 336 – 545
– Grade differential R/ton 13 – – –
– Handling and commission R/ton 66 66 66 104
– Seed breeding and technology levy R/ton – 58 – –
Price premiums R/ton – – – –
Net farm gate price R/ton 3 202 7 650 18 954 7 683
Gross income R/ha R44 829 R30 598 R67 839 R23 050

2. Variable expenditures
Contracting R/ha 1 150 1 307 3 681 1 307
Crop insurance R/ha 448 1 836 678 691
Fertilizer R/ha 12 602 7 782 10 089 7 263
Lime R/ha 852 – 518 –
Seed R/ha 6 677 2 292 4 065 987
Fuel R/ha 1 489 1 041 1 624 1 583
Herbicide R/ha 999 899 1 279 921
Insecticide / Fungicides R/ha 3 744 1 664 4 539 319
Marketing costs R/ha – – – –
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 673 197 971 1 064
Casual labour R/ha 678 – 229 –
Aerial spray R/ha 510 – – –
Irrigation electricity R/ha 5 582 5 582 5 744 3 964
Water R/ha 1 242 1 242 1 278 882
Other expenditure: scheduling/irrigation equipment R&M R/ha 1 247 1 247 3 380 919
Total variable expenditure R/ha R37 894 R25 089 R38 075 R19 900
Total variable expenditure R/ton R2 707 R6 272 R10 878 R6 633
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R6 935 R5 509 R29 765 R3 149
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R495 R1 377 R8 504 R1 050
Break-even yield T/ha 11.83 3.28 2.01 2.59
Break-even price R/ton R2 707 R6 272 R10 878 R6 633
Source: BFAP, GSA and GWK – 2023.
Gross margin comparison – baseline: Northern Cape Irrigation
Figure 3.1: Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Northern Cape irrigation

Gross margin per hectare: Northern Cape irrigation

Maize sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 12.50 13.00 13.50 14.00 14.50 15.00 15.50
R2 802 -2 868 -1 467 -66 1 335 2 736 4 137 5 538
R2 902 -1 618 -167 1 284 2 735 4 186 5 637 7 088
R3 002 -368 1 133 2 634 4 135 5 636 7 137 8 638
R3 102 882 2 433 3 984 5 535 7 086 8 637 10 188
R3 202 2 132 3 733 5 334 6 935 8 536 10 137 11 738
R3 302 3 382 5 033 6 684 8 335 9 986 11 637 13 288
R3 402 4 632 6 333 8 034 9 735 11 436 13 137 14 838
R3 502 5 882 7 633 9 384 11 135 12 886 14 637 16 388
R3 602 7 132 8 933 10 734 12 535 14 336 16 137 17 938
Soybeans sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75
R7 250 -1 528 284 2 097 3 909 5 721 7 534 9 346
R7 350 -1 203 634 2 472 4 309 6 146 7 984 9 821
R7 450 -878 984 2 847 4 709 6 571 8 434 10 296
R7 550 -553 1 334 3 222 5 109 6 996 8 884 10 771
R7 650 -228 1 684 3 597 5 509 7 421 9 334 11 246
R7 750 97 2 034 3 972 5 909 7 846 9 784 11 721
R7 850 422 2 384 4 347 6 309 8 271 10 234 12 196
R7 950 747 2 734 4 722 6 709 8 696 10 684 12 671
R8 050 1 072 3 084 5 097 7 109 9 121 11 134 13 146
Groundnuts sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
R18 554 15 012 19 838 24 664 29 490 39 142 48 794 58 446
R18 654 15 287 20 138 24 989 29 840 39 542 49 244 58 946
R18 754 15 562 20 438 25 314 30 190 39 942 49 694 59 446
R18 854 15 837 20 738 25 639 30 540 40 342 50 144 59 946
R18 954 16 112 21 038 25 964 30 890 40 742 50 594 60 446
R19 054 16 387 21 338 26 289 31 240 41 142 51 044 60 946
R19 154 16 662 21 638 26 614 31 590 41 542 51 494 61 446
R19 254 16 937 21 938 26 939 31 940 41 942 51 944 61 946
R19 354 17 212 22 238 27 264 32 290 42 342 52 394 62 446
Sunflower oil sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
R7 283 -3 513 -1 692 128 1 949 5 591 9 232 12 874
R7 383 -3 288 -1 442 403 2 249 5 941 9 632 13 324
R7 483 -3 063 -1 192 678 2 549 6 291 10 032 13 774
R7 583 -2 838 -942 953 2 849 6 641 10 432 14 224
R7 683 -2 388 -692 1 228 3 149 6 991 10 832 14 674
R7 783 -2 388 -442 1 503 3 449 7 341 11 232 15 124
R7 883 -2 163 -192 1 778 3 749 7 691 11 632 15 574
R7 983 -1 938 58 2 053 4 049 8 041 12 032 16 024
R8 083 -1 713 308 2 328 4 349 8 391 12 432 16 474
Soybeans margin above/below maize
Yield Price (R/ton)
R7 350 R7 450 R7 550 R7 650 R7 750 R7 850 R7 950
3.00 -9 975 -9 675 -9 375 -9 075 -8 775 -8 475 -8 175
3.25 -8 138 -7 813 -7 488 -7 163 -6 838 -6 513 -6 188
3.50 -6 301 -5 951 -5 601 -5 251 -4 901 -4 551 -4 201
3.75 -4 463 -4 088 -3 713 -3 338 -2 963 -2 588 -2 213
4.00 -2 626 -2 226 -1 826 -1 426 -1 026 -626 -226
4.25 -788 -363 62 487 912 1 337 1 762
4.50 1 049 1 499 1 949 2 399 2 849 3 299 3 749
4.75 2 886 3 361 3 836 4 311 4 786 5 261 5 736
5.00 4 724 5 224 5 724 6 224 6 724 7 224 7 724

Notes

  • Farm gate price for groundnuts is calculated according to assumptions based on the share of the crop that is graded according to selection grade (40/50-60/70 and 70/80), diverse and crush (human and oil).
  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • Other macro- and microelements such as calcium, magnesium and zinc are included in the fertiliser costs.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The cost for soybean seed reflects a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • There will be large fluctuations for insurance cost (hail) based on the associated risk in respective areas. It is advised that producers adjust this cost based on their individual premiums.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for.
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