2025 ICB: dryland winter crops in Eastern Ruêns (high potential)

OPDT   OIL & PROTEIN SEEDS DEVELOPMENT TRUST
OAC   OILSEEDS ADVISORY COMMITTEE

OPDT
OIL & PROTEIN SEEDS DEVELOPMENT TRUST

OAC
OILSEEDS ADVISORY COMMITTEE


WINTER CROPS  //  2025 Income and Cost Budgets

Southern Cape – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupins for Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – high potential regions)
Area Southern Cape: Eastern Rûens (high potential)
Crop Wheat Barley Canola Oats Lupins
Production system Dryland

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 3.00 3.00 2.10 2.50 1.70
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2025 R/ton 6 327 6 327 7 637 6 327 5 440
Total deductions R/ton 1 090 1 119 29 924 194
– Transport differential R/ton 800 800 800 94
– Grade differential R/ton 168 286
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 123 33 29 124 100
Price premiums / Canola back-payment R/ton 74 764
Net farm gate price R/ton 5 237 5 387 8 371 5 403 5 246
Gross income R/ha R15 711 R16 161 R17 580 R13 509 R8 918

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha
Crop insurance R/ha 45 46 50 39
Fertilizer R/ha 2 928 2 884 3 476 2 559 1 363
Lime R/ha 262 262 262 220
Seed R/ha 705 679 1 685 1 267 1 118
Fuel R/ha 750 767 754 738 680
Herbicide R/ha 1 682 1 369 1 054 810 883
Insecticide R/ha 258 186 625 136 165
Fungicides R/ha 699 1 172 685 508 575
Marketing costs R/ha 78 106 4344
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 962 950 1 068 793 416
Casual labour R/ha 18 24 22 15 7
Aerial spray R/ha
Other expenditure R/ha 36 165 153 123 123
Total variable expenditure R/ha R8 424 R8 610 R9 880 R7 206 R5 329
Total variable expenditure R/ton R2 808 R2 870 R4 705 R2 883 R3 135
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R7 287 R7 551 R7 700 R6 302 R3 588
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R2 429 R2 517 R3 666 R2 521 R2 111
Break-even yield T/ha 1.61 1.60 1.18 1.33 1.02
Break-even price R/ton R2 808 R2 870 R4 705 R2 883 R3 135
Source: SSK, GSA and BFAP, updated April 2025.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – high potential)
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Ruens - high potential region)

Gross margin per hectare: Southern Cape – Eastern Rûens (high potential)

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75
R4 237 1 109 2 169 3 228 4 287 5 346 6 406 7 465
R4 487 1 672 2 794 3 915 5 037 6 159 7 281 8 402
R4 737 2 234 3 419 4 603 5 787 6 971 8 156 9 340
R4 987 2 797 4 044 5 290 6 537 7 784 9 031 10 277
R5 237 3 359 4 669 5 978 7 287 8 596 9 906 11 215
R5 487 3 922 5 294 6 665 8 037 9 409 10 781 12 152
R5 737 4 484 5 919 7 353 8 787 10 221 11 656 13 090
R5 987 5 047 6 544 8 040 9 537 11 034 12 531 14 027
R6 237 5 609 7 169 8 728 10 287 11 846 13 406 14 965
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75
R4 387 1 261 2 358 3 455 4 551 5 648 6 745 7 842
R4 637 1 823 2 983 4 142 5 301 6 461 7 620 8 779
R4 887 2 386 3 608 4 830 6 051 7 273 8 495 9 717
R5 137 2 948 4 233 5 517 6 801 8 086 9 370 10 654
R5 387 3 511 4 858 6 205 7 551 8 898 10 245 11 592
R5 637 4 073 5 483 6 892 8 301 9 711 11 120 12 529
R5 887 4 636 6 108 7 580 9 051 10 523 11 995 13 467
R6 137 5 198 6 733 8 267 9 801 11 336 12 870 14 404
R6 387 5 761 7 358 8 955 10 551 12 148 13 745 15 342
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.35 1.60 1.85 2.10 2.35 2.60 2.85
R7 371 71 1 914 3 757 5 600 7 442 9 285 11 128
R7 621 409 2 314 4 219 6 125 8 030 9 935 11 841
R7 871 746 2 714 4 682 6 650 8 617 10 585 12 553
R8 121 1 084 3 114 5 144 7 175 9 205 11 235 13 266
R8 371 1 421 3 514 5 607 7 700 9 792 11 885 13 978
R8 621 1 759 3 914 6 069 8 225 10 380 12 535 14 691
R8 871 2 096 4 314 6 532 8 750 10 967 13 185 15 403
R9 121 2 434 4 714 6 994 9 275 11 555 13 835 16 116
R9 371 2 771 5 114 7 457 9 800 12 142 14 485 16 828
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R7 621 R7 871 R8 121 R8 371 R8 621 R8 871 R9 121
1.10 -8 784 -8 509 -8 234 -7 959 -7 684 -7 409 -7 134
1.35 -6 878 -6 541 -6 203 -5 866 -5 528 -5 191 -4 853
1.60 -4 973 -4 573 -4 173 -3 773 -3 373 -2 973 -2 573
1.85 -3 068 -2 605 -2 143 -1 680 -1 218 -755 -293
2.10 -1 163 -638 -113 412 937 1 462 1 987
2.35 743 1 330 1 918 2 505 3 093 3 680 4 268
2.60 2 648 3 298 3 948 4 598 5 248 5 898 6 548
2.85 4 553 5 266 5 978 6 691 7 403 8 116 8 828
3.10 6 459 7 234 8 009 8 784 9 559 10 334 11 109

Notes

  • Please refer to Methodology, Approach and Definitions for in-depth interpretation of enterprise budgets.
  • The canola back-payment assumes 10% of contracted price.
  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for. Overhead costs such as interest on production loans, labour, management and administration will vary to a large extent from producer to producer. Producers will therefore have to deduct the farm business' overhead cost from the gross margins as stipulated in the tables and figures to calculate the net income per crop.
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