Adapting to a changing world
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations reports that disasters have caused roughly US$3 trillion in agricultural losses worldwide over the past 33 years – an average of US$99 billion per year. Droughts, floods, pests, and marine heatwaves are the main disruptors. Disasters have destroyed an estimated 4,6 billion tonnes of cereals and 2,8 billion tonnes of fruit and vegetables. Asia accounts for 47% of these losses and the Americas 22%, while Africa, despite lower monetary losses, has suffered the greatest impact as agriculture represents a significant share of employment and income.
Digital solutions to mitigate risk
Digital technologies are transforming the way producers, governments, and communities monitor risks and anticipate impacts. Early warning systems play a crucial role in reducing risks, and proactive rather than reactive responses are part of the solution.
There are numerous examples of effective strategies and tools, such as the FAO’s Climate Risk Toolbox (CRTB), Rift Valley Fever Early Warning Decision-Support Tool, Soil Mapping for Resilient Agrifood Systems (SoilFER), Fall Armyworm Monitoring and Early Warning System (FAMEWS), Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), and parametric insurance platforms.
To fully realise the benefits of these strategies, digital infrastructure is essential. This will improve decision making and enable innovation, especially in the rural areas of the world’s less-developed countries.
The geopolitical landscape
Ongoing turmoil in global politics is driving uncertainty, fuelled by protectionism and conflict. Food security is affected by price volatility and disruptions across global supply chains. For instance, exports from the Black Sea region, which is a major supplier of wheat, maize, and sunflower oil, have been affected by supply chain challenges and sanctions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war.
The instability in the Middle East affects the cost of energy, which directly impacts fertiliser prices. The result is higher production costs and increased price volatility. Political instability also discourages long-term investment in agriculture within affected countries, further undermining growth.
In addition, global trade routes have shifted and, in some cases, been disrupted by trade barriers such as higher tariffs and protectionist policies. Evolving biofuel policies have added another layer of uncertainty.
This challenging environment requires continuous, judicious adaptation. Despite these headwinds, we hope 2026 will be a prosperous year for all.
