OPDT   OIL & PROTEIN SEEDS DEVELOPMENT TRUST
OAC   OILSEEDS ADVISORY COMMITTEE

OPDT
OIL & PROTEIN SEEDS DEVELOPMENT TRUST

OAC
OILSEEDS ADVISORY COMMITTEE


WINTER CROPS  //  2021 Income and Cost Budgets

Southern Cape – dryland

Income and cost budgets for wheat, barley, canola, oats and lupins for Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – normal potential regions)
Area Southern Cape: Eastern Rûens (normal potential)
Crop Wheat Barley Canola Oats Lupins
Production system Dryland

1. Income

Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 2.50 2.50 1.50 2.20 1.50
SAFEX simulated / derived price: 2021 R/ton 4 955 4 955 6 700 4 955 4 450
Total deductions R/ton 714 677 135 865 139
– Transport differential R/ton 600 600 130 825 100
– Grade differential R/ton 3
– Marketing, handling and statutory levies R/ton 111 77 5 40 39
Price premiums / Canola back-payment (10% of contracted price) R/ton 65 670
Net farm gate price R/ton 4 241 4 212 7 235 4 091 4 311
Gross income R/ha R10 602 R10 531 R10 853 R8 999 R6 467

2. Variable expenditures

Contracting R/ha
Crop insurance R/ha 30 30 31 26
Fertilizer R/ha 1 540 1 498 1 601 1 212 590
Lime R/ha 226 226 226 226
Seed R/ha 463 300 838 460 795
Fuel R/ha 494 503 503 492 472
Herbicide R/ha 684 680 1 113 647 745
Insecticide R/ha 116 101 493 132 149
Fungicides R/ha 598 720 637 394 262
Marketing costs R/ha 54 74 26 22
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 573 573 617 573 573
Casual labour R/ha 16 16 12 16 16
Aerial spray R/ha
Other expenditure R/ha 121 122 115 107 96
Total variable expenditure R/ha R4 915 R4 844 R6 214 R4 306 R3 696
Total variable expenditure R/ton R1 966 R1 937 R4 143 R1 957 R2 464
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R5 688 R5 688 R4 638 R4 693 R2 770
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R2 275 R2 275 R3 092 R2 133 R1 847
Break-even yield T/ha 1.16 1.15 0.86 1.05 0.86
Break-even price R/ton R1 966 R1 937 R4 143 R1 957 R2 464
Source: SSK, GSA and BFAP, April 2021.
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Rûens – normal potential)
Gross margin comparison – Baseline: Southern Cape (Eastern Ruens - normal potential region)

Gross margin per hectare: Southern Cape – Eastern Rûens (normal potential)

Wheat sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25
R3 241 757 1 567 2 377 3 188 3 998 4 808 5 618
R3 491 1 194 2 067 2 940 3 813 4 685 5 558 6 431
R3 741 1 632 2 567 3 502 4 438 5 373 6 308 7 243
R3 991 2 069 3 067 4 065 5 063 6 060 7 058 8 056
R4 241 2 507 3 567 4 627 5 688 6 748 7 808 8 868
R4 491 2 944 4 067 5 190 6 313 7 435 8 558 9 681
R4 741 3 382 4 567 5 752 6 938 8 123 9 308 10 493
R4 991 3 819 5 067 6 315 7 563 8 810 10 058 11 306
R5 241 4 257 5 567 6 877 8 188 9 498 10 808 12 118
Barley sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25
R3 212 778 1 581 2 384 3 188 3 991 4 794 5 597
R3 462 1 216 2 081 2 947 3 813 4 678 5 544 6 409
R3 712 1 653 2 581 3 509 4 438 5 366 6 294 7 222
R3 962 2 091 3 081 4 072 5 063 6 053 7 044 8 034
R4 212 2 528 3 581 4 634 5 688 6 741 7 794 8 847
R4 462 2 966 4 081 5 197 6 313 7 428 8 544 9 659
R4 712 3 403 4 581 5 759 6 938 8 116 9 294 10 472
R4 962 3 841 5 081 6 322 7 563 8 803 10 044 11 284
R5 212 4 278 5 581 6 884 8 188 9 491 10 794 12 097
Canola sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25
R6 235 -1 538 21 1 580 3 138 4 697 6 256 7 815
R6 485 -1 350 271 1 892 3 513 5 135 6 756 8 377
R6 735 -1 163 521 2 205 3 888 5 572 7 256 8 940
R6 985 -975 771 2 517 4 263 6 010 7 756 9 502
R7 235 -788 1 021 2 830 4 638 6 447 8 256 10 065
R7 485 -600 1 271 3 142 5 013 6 885 8 756 10 627
R7 735 -413 1 521 3 455 5 388 7 322 9 256 11 190
R7 985 -225 1 771 3 767 5 763 7 760 9 756 11 752
R8 235 -38 2 021 4 080 6 138 8 197 10 256 12 315
Canola margin above/below wheat
Yield Price (R/ton)
R6 485 R6 735 R6 985 R7 235 R7 485 R7 735 R7 985
0.50 -8 659 -8 534 -8 409 -8 284 -8 159 -8 034 -7 909
0.75 -7 038 -6 851 -6 663 -6 476 -6 288 -6 101 -5 913
1.00 -5 417 -5 167 -4 917 -4 667 -4 417 -4 167 -3 917
1.25 -3 796 -3 483 -3 171 -2 858 -2 546 -2 233 -1 921
1.50 -2 174 -1 799 -1 424 -1 049 -674 -299 76
1.75 -553 -116 322 759 1 197 1 634 2 072
2.00 1 068 1 568 2 068 2 568 3 068 3 568 4 068
2.25 2 689 3 252 3 814 4 377 4 939 5 502 6 064
2.50 4 311 4 936 5 561 6 186 6 811 7 436 8 061

Notes

  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The costs for wheat, barley and oats seeds reflect a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for. Overhead costs such as interest on production loans, labour, management and administration will vary to a large extent from producer to producer. Producers will therefore have to deduct the farm business' overhead cost from the gross margins as stipulated in the tables and figures to calculate the net income per crop.
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