2023/2024 ICB: Dryland summer crops at Lichtenburg, North West

OPDT   OIL & PROTEIN SEEDS DEVELOPMENT TRUST
OAC   OILSEEDS ADVISORY COMMITTEE

OPDT
OIL & PROTEIN SEEDS DEVELOPMENT TRUST

OAC
OILSEEDS ADVISORY COMMITTEE

2023/2024 SUMMER CROPS  //  Income and Cost Budgets

North West (Lichtenburg) – dryland

Income and cost budgets for maize, soybeans and sunflower for North West in the Lichtenburg region
Area North West: Lichtenburg
Crop Maize Soybeans Sunflower Groundnuts
Production system Dryland

1. Income
Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 4.25 1.50 1.70 1.50
SAFEX simulated price / producer price: 2024 R/ton 3 779 8 109 8 332 16 300
Total deductions R/ton 364 325 374 66
– Transport differential R/ton 272 202 277 –
– Grade differential R/ton 26 – – –
– Handling and commission R/ton 66 66 97 66
– Seed breeding and technology levy R/ton – 58 – –
Price premiums R/ton – – – –
Net farm gate price R/ton 3 415 7 784 7 958 16 234
Gross income R/ha R14 512 R11 675 R13 529 R24 351

2. Variable expenditures
Contracting R/ha – – – –
Crop insurance R/ha 218 1 307 380 390
Fertilizer R/ha 3 025 1 195 1 567 1 663
Lime R/ha 381 – – 209
Seed R/ha 1 173 797 796 2 013
Fuel R/ha 1 418 1 133 1 153 2 180
Herbicide R/ha 1 094 1 518 871 1 351
Insecticide / Fungicides R/ha 796 285 393 1 024
Marketing costs R/ha – – – –
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 1 141 658 781 936
Casual labour R/ha 206 – – 532
Aerial spray R/ha – – – –
Other expenditure R/ha – – – 339
Total variable expenditure R/ha R9 451 R6 892 R5 939 R10 637
Total variable expenditure R/ton R2 224 R4 595 R3 494 R7 091
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R5 061 R4 783 R7 589 R13 714
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R1 191 R3 189 R4 464 R9 143
Break-even yield T/ha 2.77 0.89 0.75 0.66
Break-even price R/ton R2 224 R4 595 R3 494 R7 091
Source: BFAP, GSA, NWK and individual farmers – 2023.
Gross margin comparison – baseline: North West (Koster and Lichtenburg)
Gross margin comparison - Baseline: North West: Koster and Lichtenburg

Gross margin per hectare: North West (Lichtenburg)

Maize sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 2.75 3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 5.25 5.75
R3 015 -1 161 347 1 854 3 361 4 868 6 376 7 883
R3 115 -886 672 2 229 3 786 5 343 6 901 8 458
R3 215 -611 997 2 604 4 211 5 818 7 426 9 033
R3 315 -336 1 322 2 979 4 636 6 293 7 951 9 608
R3 415 -61 1 647 3 354 5 061 6 768 8 476 10 183
R3 515 214 1 972 3 729 5 486 7 243 9 001 10 758
R3 615 489 2 297 4 104 5 911 7 718 9 526 11 333
R3 715 764 2 622 4 479 6 336 8 193 10 051 11 908
R3 815 1 039 2 947 4 854 6 761 8 668 10 576 12 483
Soybeans sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25
R7 384 -1 355 491 2 337 4 183 6 029 7 875 9 720
R7 484 -1 280 591 2 462 4 333 6 204 8 075 9 945
R7 584 -1 205 691 2 587 4 483 6 379 8 275 10 170
R7 684 -1 130 791 2 712 4 633 6 554 8 475 10 395
R7 784 -1 055 891 2 837 4 783 6 729 8 675 10 620
R7 884 -980 991 2 962 4 933 6 904 8 875 10 845
R7 984 -905 1 091 3 087 5 083 7 079 9 075 11 070
R8 084 -830 1 191 3 212 5 233 7 254 9 275 11 295
R8 184 -755 1 291 3 337 5 383 7 429 9 475 11 520
Sunflower sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.70 2.00 2.25 2.50
R7 558 1 619 3 508 5 398 6 909 9 177 11 066 12 956
R7 658 1 719 3 633 5 548 7 079 9 377 11 291 13 206
R7 758 1 819 3 758 5 698 7 249 9 577 11 516 13 456
R7 858 1 919 3 883 5 848 7 419 9 777 11 741 13 706
R7 958 2 019 4 008 5 998 7 589 9 977 11 966 13 956
R8 058 2 119 4 133 6 148 7 759 10 177 12 191 14 206
R8 158 2 219 4 258 6 298 7 929 10 377 12 416 14 456
R8 258 2 319 4 383 6 448 8 099 10 577 12 641 14 706
R8 358 2 419 4 508 6 598 8 269 10 777 12 866 14 956
Groundnuts sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25
R15 834 1 914 6 097 10 281 14 464 18 648 22 831 27 015
R15 934 1 989 6 197 10 406 14 614 18 823 23 031 27 240
R16 034 2 064 6 297 10 531 14 764 18 998 23 231 27 465
R16 134 2 139 6 397 10 656 14 914 19 173 23 431 27 690
R16 234 2 214 6 497 10 781 15 064 19 348 23 631 27 915
R16 334 2 289 6 597 10 906 15 214 19 523 23 831 28 140
R16 434 2 364 6 697 11 031 15 364 19 698 24 031 28 365
R16 534 2 439 6 797 11 156 15 514 19 873 24 231 28 590
R16 634 2 514 6 897 11 281 15 664 20 048 24 431 28 815
Soybeans margin above/below maize
Yield Price (R/ton)
R7 484 R7 584 R7 684 R7 784 R7 884 R7 984 R8 084
0.50 -8 212 -8 162 -8 112 -8 062 -8 012 -7 962 -7 912
0.75 -6 341 -6 266 -6 191 -6 116 -6 041 -5 966 -5 891
1.00 -4 470 -4 370 -4 270 -4 170 -4 070 -3 970 -3 870
1.25 -2 599 -2 474 -2 349 -2 224 -2 099 -1 974 -1 849
1.50 -728 -578 -428 -278 -128 22 172
1.75 1 143 1 318 1 493 1 668 1 843 2 018 2 193
2.00 3 014 3 214 3 414 3 614 3 814 4 014 4 214
2.25 4 884 5 109 5 334 5 559 5 784 6 009 6 234
2.50 6 755 7 005 7 255 7 505 7 755 8 005 8 255

Notes

  • Farm gate price for ground nuts is calculated according to assumptions based on the share of the crop that is graded according to selection grade (40/50-60/70 and 70/80), diverse and crush (human and oil).
  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • Other macro- and microelements such as calcium, magnesium and zinc are included in the fertiliser costs.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The cost for soybean seed reflects a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • There will be large fluctuations for insurance cost (hail) based on the associated risk in respective areas. It is advised that producers adjust this cost based on their individual premiums.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for.
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