2023/2024 ICB: Dryland crops in Western and Northern Free State

OPDT   OIL & PROTEIN SEEDS DEVELOPMENT TRUST
OAC   OILSEEDS ADVISORY COMMITTEE

OPDT
OIL & PROTEIN SEEDS DEVELOPMENT TRUST

OAC
OILSEEDS ADVISORY COMMITTEE

2023/2024 SUMMER CROPS  //  Income and Cost Budgets

Northern Free State – dryland

Income and cost budgets for maize, soybeans, sunflower, groundnuts and grain sorghum for Western and Northern Free State
Area Western and Northern Free State
Crop Maize (higher potential) Maize (normal potential) Soybeans Sunflower Groundnuts Grain sorghum
Production system Dryland

1. Income
Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 5.50 4.50 1.75 1.75 1.50 3.00
SAFEX simulated price / producer price: 2024 R/ton 3 766 3 779 8 109 8 332 16 300 4 674
Total deductions R/ton 454 382 398 462 66 66
– Transport differential R/ton 370 290 275 295 – –
– Grade differential R/ton 18 26 – – – –
– Handling and commission R/ton 66 66 66 104 66 66
– Seed breeding & technology levy R/ton – – 58 63 – –
Price premiums R/ton – – – – – –
Net farm gate price R/ton 3 312 3 397 7 711 7 870 16 234 4 608
Gross income R/ha R18 215 R15 285 R13 493 R13 773 R24 351 R13 823

2. Variable expenditures
Contracting R/ha – – – – – –
Crop insurance R/ha 200 168 661 386 381 442
Fertilizer R/ha 3 709 2 900 1 119 1 811 1 670 2 691
Lime R/ha 336 336 – – 185 196
Seed R/ha 1 813 1 359 1 229 634 2 066 470
Fuel R/ha 1 575 1 561 1 115 1 216 2 143 1 449
Herbicide R/ha 1 623 1 534 1 740 1 240 1 515 1 199
Insecticide / Fungicides R/ha 796 796 250 287 1 075 789
Marketing costs R/ha – – – – – –
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 1 000 893 822 741 951 778
Casual labour R/ha 266 218 – – 532 70
Aerial spray R/ha – – – – – –
Other expenditure R/ha – – – – 339 –
Total variable expenditure R/ha R11 318 R9 765 R6 936 R6 315 R10 856 R8 084
Total variable expenditure R/ton R2 058 R2 170 R3 963 R3 609 R7 237 R2 695
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R6 897 R5 520 R6 558 R7 458 R13 496 R5 739
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R1 254 R1 227 R3 747 R4 261 R8 997 R1 913
Break-even yield T/ha 3.42 2.87 0.90 0.80 0.67 1.75
Break-even price R/ton R2 058 R2 170 R3 963 R3 609 R7 237 R2 695
Source: BFAP, GSA and Senwes – 2023.
Gross margin comparison – baseline: Northern Free State
Gross margin comparison - Baseline: Western / Northern Free State

Gross margin per hectare: Northern Free State

Maize sensitivity analysis (higher potential soils)
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00
R2 912 329 1 785 3 241 4 697 6 153 7 609 9 065
R3 012 729 2 235 3 741 4 697 6 153 7 609 9 065
R3 112 1 129 2 685 4 241 5 797 7 353 8 909 10 465
R3 212 1 529 3 135 4 741 6 347 7 953 9 559 11 165
R3 312 1 929 3 585 5 241 6 897 8 553 10 209 11 865
R3 412 2 329 4 035 5 741 7 447 9 153 10 859 12 565
R3 512 2 729 4 485 6 241 7 997 9 753 11 509 13 265
R3 612 3 129 4 935 6 741 8 547 10 353 12 159 13 965
R3 712 3 529 5 385 7 241 9 097 10 953 12 809 14 665
Soybeans sensitivity analysis (normal potential soils)
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50
R7 311 375 2 202 4 030 5 858 7 685 9 513 11 341
R7 411 475 2 327 4 180 6 033 7 885 9 738 11 591
R7 511 575 2 452 4 330 6 208 8 085 9 963 11 841
R7 611 675 2 577 4 480 6 383 8 285 10 188 12 091
R7 711 775 2 702 4 630 6 558 8 485 10 413 12 341
R7 811 875 2 827 4 780 6 733 8 685 10 638 12 591
R7 911 975 2 952 4 930 6 908 8 885 10 863 12 841
R8 011 1 155 3 022 4 890 6 758 8 625 10 493 12 360
R8 111 1 175 3 202 5 230 7 258 9 285 11 313 13 341
Sunflower sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50
R7 470 1 155 3 022 4 890 6 758 8 625 10 493 12 360
R7 570 1 255 3 147 5 040 6 933 8 825 10 718 12 610
R7 670 1 355 3 272 5 190 7 108 9 025 10 943 12 860
R7 770 1 455 3 397 5 340 7 283 9 225 11 168 13 110
R7 870 1 555 3 522 5 490 7 458 9 425 11 393 13 360
R7 970 1 655 3 647 5 640 7 633 9 625 11 618 13 610
R8 070 1 755 3 772 5 790 7 808 9 825 11 843 13 860
R8 170 1 855 3 897 5 940 7 983 10 025 12 068 14 110
R8 270 1 955 4 022 6 090 8 158 10 225 12 293 14 360
Groundnuts sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25
R15 834 1 695 5 879 10 062 14 246 18 429 22 613 26 796
R15 934 1 770 5 979 10 187 14 396 18 604 22 813 27 021
R16 034 1 845 6 079 10 312 14 546 18 779 23 013 27 246
R16 134 1 920 6 179 10 437 14 696 18 954 23 213 27 471
R16 234 1 995 6 279 10 562 14 846 19 129 23 413 27 696
R16 334 2 070 6 379 10 687 14 996 19 304 23 613 27 921
R16 434 2 145 6 479 10 812 15 146 19 479 23 813 28 146
R16 534 2 220 6 579 10 937 15 296 19 654 24 013 28 371
R16 634 2 295 6 679 11 062 15 446 19 829 24 213 28 596
Soybeans margin above/below maize
Yield Price (R/ton)
R7 411 R7 511 R7 611 R7 711 R7 811 R7 911 R8 011
0.75 -8 275 -8 200 -8 125 -8 050 -7 975 -7 900 -7 825
1.00 -6 422 -6 322 -6 222 -6 122 -6 022 -5 922 -5 822
1.25 -4 570 -4 445 -4 320 -4 195 -4 070 -3 945 -3 820
1.50 -2 717 -2 567 -2 417 -2 267 -2 117 -1 967 -1 817
1.75 -864 -689 -514 -339 -164 11 186
2.00 988 1 188 1 388 1 588 1 788 1 988 2 188
2.25 2 841 3 066 3 291 3 516 3 741 3 966 4 191
2.50 4 694 4 944 5 194 5 444 5 694 5 944 6 194
2.75 6 546 6 821 7 096 7 371 7 646 7 921 8 196

Notes

  • The Northern Free State high potential maize budget represents the cultivation of yellow maize under high potential conditions such as water table soils.
  • Farm gate price for ground nuts is calculated according to assumptions based on the share of the crop that is graded according to selection grade (40/50-60/70 and 70/80), diverse and crush (human and oil).
  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • Other macro- and microelements such as calcium, magnesium and zinc are included in the fertiliser costs.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The cost for soybean seed reflects a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • There will be large fluctuations for insurance cost (hail) based on the associated risk in respective areas. It is advised that producers adjust this cost based on their individual premiums.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for.
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