The final area planted and crop production figures of winter cereals for the 2021 production season
At a meeting held on 10 May 2022, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial wheat, barley, canola and oats for 2021.
The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the wheat utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.
Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during February 2022, the size of the commercial wheat crop is now 2 285 000 tons, which is 27 795 tons or 1,23% more than the final crop estimate figure of 2 257 205 tons. For barley the recalculated crop size is 334 000 tons, which is 2 900 tons or 0,88% more than the final crop estimate figure of 331 100 tons. The final recalculated canola crop estimate figure is 198 100 tons, which is higher (1 100 tons or 0,56%) than the final crop estimate figure of 197 000 tons. The final recalculated oats crop estimate figure is 59 000 tons, which is 10 950 tons or 15,65% lower than the final crop estimate figure of 69 950 tons.
CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2021 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).
The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.
|Crop||Final area planted||Final crop||CEC area planted¹||CEC final estimate¹||Final crop vs Final estimate|
|(A)||(B)||(C)||(D)||(B) ÷ (D)|
|Wheat||523 500||2 285 000||523 500||2 257 205||+1.23|
|Barley||94 730||334 000||94 730||331 100||+0.88|
|Canola||100 000||198 100||100 000||197 000||+0.56|
|Oats||36 250||59 000||36 250||69 950||-15.65|
¹ As estimated by the CEC on 28 February 2022
|Crop||Final crop||Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS¹||Estimated future deliveries||Retentions on farms for own use/seed|
|(October 2021 - March 2022)||(April - September 2022)|
|Wheat||2 285 000||2 180 107||64 893||40 000²|
|Barley||334 000||331 479||1 521||1 000|
|Canola||198 100||197 823||177||100|
|Oats||59 000||56 999||2 001||0|
¹ SAGIS producer deliveries relate to the current crop.
² Based on a survey undertaken by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development.