Final area planted and crop production figures of winter cereals for 2022
At a meeting held on 11 May 2023, the Crop Estimates Liaison Committee (CELC) oversaw the process for the finalisation of the crop production figures of commercial wheat, barley, canola and oats for 2022.
The estimated total production figures as released by the national Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) were revised, using the published figures of the South Africa Grain Information Services (SAGIS) of actual deliveries as the basis for the calculations. The figures from the wheat utilisation survey to determine on-farm usage and retentions, which was conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD), were added to the SAGIS delivery figures to calculate the final crop production figures.
Comparing the final calculated crop figures with the numbers set by the CEC during February 2023, the size of the commercial wheat crop is now 2 110 000 tons, which is 21 410 tons or 1,02% more than the final crop estimate figure of 2 088 590 tons. For barley the recalculated crop size is 302 000 tons, which is 6 675 tons or 2,16% less than the final crop estimate figure of 308 675 tons. The final recalculated canola crop estimate figure is 210 000 tons, which is lower (530 tons or 0,25%) than the final crop estimate figure of 210 530 tons. The final recalculated oats crop estimate figure is 27 550 tons, which is 2 350 tons or 7,86% lower than the final crop estimate figure of 29 900 tons.
CELC accepted the final recalculated crop production figures for 2022 (please refer to the figures in the accompanying tables).
The CEC would like to thank all producers and industry role-players who provided information on a regular basis to improve the accuracy of the crop estimates. Producers, who do not participate in the Department's monthly survey, are requested as a matter of urgency to make an effort to contribute to the crop estimates process.
|Crop||Final area planted||Final crop||CEC area planted ¹||CEC final estimate ¹||Final crop vs Final estimate|
|(A)||(B)||(C)||(D)||(B) ÷ (D)|
|Wheat||566 800||2 110 000||566 800||2 088 590||+1.02|
|Barley||101 000||302 000||101 000||308 675||-2.16|
|Canola||123 510||210 000||123 510||210 530||-0.25|
|Oats||27 000||27 550||27 000||29 900||-7.86|
¹ As estimated by the CEC on 28 February 2023
|Crop||Final crop||Producer deliveries reported by SAGIS ¹||Projected deliveries||Retentions on farms for own use/seed|
|(Oct 2022 to Mar 2023)||(April to Sep 2023)|
|Wheat||2 110 000||1 982 802||77 198||50 000²|
|Barley||302 000||298 752||2 248||1 000|
|Canola||210 000||209 804||96||100|
|Oats||27 550||26 359||1 191||0|
¹ SAGIS producer deliveries relate to the current crop.
² Based on a survey undertaken by the Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis of the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development.